RBA boss tells it straight on housing

Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe delivered a blunt warning on the housing market this week, taking aim at supply, lax lending and tax concessions.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe

Reserve Bank boss Philip Lowe delivered a blunt warning on the state of Australia's housing market. (AAP)

Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe dropped the 'central bank-speak' this week to deliver a blunt warning on the state of Australia's red-hot housing market.

Former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan once boasted how he had learnt to "mumble with great incoherence" after becoming a central banker.

But Lowe was far from vague on Tuesday, as figures showed Sydney house prices have rocketed nearly 20 per cent in the past year and in Melbourne by over 15 per cent.

Housing supply has not kept up with demand, there has been a lack of well-located land released and an under-investment in good transport, Lowe said in a dinner address.

He also turned on the banks for lax lending practices, which has fuelled ballooning debt at a time of slow household income growth.

He said too many loans were being made which leave the borrower with the "skinniest" of income buffers, assuming people can live more frugally than they can in practice.

He is also concerned banks have allowed interest-only home loans to grow to 40 per cent of loans granted, unusual by international standards.

Such loans are drawing investors from other countries which don't enjoy similar flexibility, which are made even more attractive by the taxation arrangements that apply to investment in residential property.

He expects a new suite of measures from regulators will help cool demand, including limited interest rate-only loans to 30 per cent.

Lowe's address overshadowed his views on the broader economy following the central bank's monthly board meeting hours earlier.

They were hardly inspiring.

Recent figures point to ongoing "moderate" growth, unemployment has moved higher while employment growth is modest.

Wage growth remains slow while inflation remains quite low.

As one economist said, Lowe is stuck between a "rock and a hard place" with a raging housing market on one hand but an economy that couldn't handle an interest rate rise to counter it.

Data this week showed annual retail spending has slowed to a pace not seen in almost four years.

That ties in with consumer confidence, which has been trending downwards since the beginning of the year and now stands at its lowest level since October 2015.

This gloomy backdrop means Treasurer Scott Morrison can't be gung-ho in trying to balance the nation's finances when he hands down his second budget on May 9.

However, he will have the benefit of increased revenue from higher iron ore and coal prices, although that has come off the stunning levels seen earlier this year.

Tackling housing affordability will be the centre of the budget, which will include the introduction of a "bond aggregator" as an intermediary to attract greater private sector investment into affordable community housing, similar to a process used in the UK.

However, just as Lowe was forthright for a central banker in his views on housing, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been vague on what measures potential homebuyers can expect to help them onto the property ladder.

Whereas Turnbull and other ministers were adamant during last year's election that the government wouldn't be pursuing changes to housing tax concessions, like negative gearing or the capital gain tax discount Labor was advocating, he refuses to rule out such changes now.

Similarly, when asked about whether the government will be allowing young people to tap their superannuation to help build a deposit for a mortgage, all the prime minister says is "wait for the budget".

In the past, Turnbull thought this was a "thoroughly bad idea".

Such are the vagaries of the pre-budget season.


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Published 6 April 2017 12:54pm
Source: AAP


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