SUPER SATURDAY OF BY-ELECTIONS
* Australia has never had five federal by-elections on the one day
* Speaker Tony Smith has yet to set the date for the by-elections, but they could be as early as June 16
LONGMAN - Queensland seat held by Labor's Susan Lamb with margin of 0.8 per cent
Lamb's dual British citizenship triggered the by-election, but she will recontest. The Liberal National Party will be the largest beneficiary of One Nation preferences. Labor will need a strong primary vote and Greens preferences to hold the seat.
BRADDON - Tasmanian seat held by Labor's Justine Keay on 2.2 per cent margin
Keay was also a victim of the dual citizenship saga, acquiring British citizenship through her father. She will recontest. Former independent senator Jacqui Lambie has ruled out a tilt. Liberals believe they can win it back, having lost it in 2016.
FREMANTLE - WA seat held by Labor's Josh Wilson on a 7.5 per cent margin
Another victim of the citizenship saga. He will recontest. Wilson has a healthy margin in the seat of former Labor prime minister John Curtin. The Greens will contest, but are unlikely to succeed. The Liberals may not stand a candidate.
MAYO - South Australian seat of Centre Alliance (formerly Nick Xenophon Team) Rebekha Sharkie, held by 5 per cent
Sharkie's British dual citizenship led to the byelection. She will recontest, but with the new party brand Centre Alliance, not the Xenophon name. The Liberal Party wants its seat back and could choose Georgina Downer, daughter of former minister Alexander Downer.
PERTH - WA seat held by Labor's Tim Hammond on a 3.3 per cent margin
Hammond is retiring to spend more time with his family. Labor has preselected its state secretary Patrick Gorman, a former Kevin Rudd staffer and mastermind of Labor's 2017 WA state election victory. Labor is likely to hold the seat.
EXPECTED RESULT
- LNP to pick up Braddon and Mayo
- Labor to retain Perth and Fremantle
- Close fight between LNP and Labor in Longman
