Wages lift needs more growth: Morrison

Treasurer Scott Morrison says the economy needs to maintain the pace of growth seen in the final months of 2016 if workers are going to earn more.

A pedestrian walks past the Reserve Bank of Australia

Economists and academics don't expect the strong rebound in economic growth will stir the RBA. (AAP)

As good as last week's economic growth figures were, Scott Morrison believes momentum has to be maintained if Australia's workers are to going to earn more.

"You're not going to earn more unless you're working for a company that's making a profit and that is open," the treasurer told Ray Hadley 2GB radio on Monday.

That's the focus of the Turnbull government as it puts together its May budget.

The national accounts showed the economy grew by a robust 1.1 per cent in the final three months of 2016, recovering from a contraction in the September quarter and avoiding a technical recession.

"This is good news, but it remains to be seen whether strong growth can be maintained throughout the year," said Timo Henckel, a lecturer at the Australian National University's Research School of Economics.

The growth number was propped by a strong contribution from household consumption in the quarter, although economists question whether this is sustainable given it came as a result of a drop in savings.

New figures show retail spending grew by a modest 0.4 per cent in January as a first glimpse for the March quarter.

"Consumer spending growth is constrained by weak wages growth and the predominance of part- over full-time jobs' growth," Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman says.

The ANZ's monthly job advertisement report also showed a 0.7 per cent decline in February after a solid 3.9 per cent rise in the previous month.

ANZ head of Australian economics David Plank says the jobless rate has been stuck at around 5.75 per cent since early 2016 and the shift to part-time work implies a considerable degree of slack in the labour market.

"This is likely to weigh on wage growth," he says.

Mr Plank expects the labour market and wages will be a key topic of discussion at the Reserve Bank board meeting on Tuesday.

Economists and academics expect the central bank to leave the cash rate at a record low 1.5 per cent.

Dr Henckel said aside from domestic issues, the world economy was also lacking a clear direction.

"There still exists uncertainty about the Trump presidency and about Europe, with key elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands looming later this year," he said.

Dr Henckel chairs the ANU's so-called "RBA shadow board" made up of academics, economists and former RBA board members.

The shadow board attached a 59 per cent probability of the cash rate holding rates steady in March.

In the longer term, the probability for a needed rate hike in six months edged up to 68 per cent from 67 per cent the previous month.


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Published 6 March 2017 2:16pm
Source: AAP


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